SportsPennsylvania73 outcomes

Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament Odds 2027

Q: What are the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament odds for 2027?

As of October 17, 2026, Kalshi had Villanova at 0.9% to win the 2027 national championship and Pittsburgh at 0.1%, the two Pennsylvania programs among the 73 on its board. Duke led at 15%.

Q: When does the 2027 NCAA Tournament market resolve?

The contract settles on the national champion crowned at Ford Field in Detroit on April 5, 2027, and Kalshi's expected expiration date is April 13, 2027.

Q: Where can I trade Villanova and Pitt national championship odds?

Only on Kalshi, which lists Villanova and Pittsburgh on its Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event with 71 other programs. No second exchange prices the contract.

Q: Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament?

Duke, at 15% on Kalshi on October 17, 2026, one point ahead of Florida at 14%. Pitt plays at Duke's Cameron Indoor Stadium on January 9, 2027.

Q: What should I watch before the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament market resolves?

Villanova at Pitt on November 17, 2026, Villanova's games with Michigan on November 21 and at Kansas on November 27, then Selection Sunday on March 14, 2027, when the first 76-team bracket is revealed.

Villanova1%+19900KALPlaced 37th of 73 (PA)

Pittsburgh<1%+99900KAL60th of 73 (PA)

Favorite: Duke 14%+614, 14 points clear of Villanova

Kalshi 15M contractsVolume

73Outcomes

KalshiPriced on 1 book

Apr 13, 2027Resolves by · 162 days

Last Updated: Nov 2, 2026, 8:32 AM ESTReal Time Odds on Prediction Genius

Price historyTop 5 of 73 · Oct 3, 2026–Nov 2, 2026

Duke14%+614
Florida13%+669
UConn8%+1150
Illinois7%+1329
Arizona5%+1900

Top 5 over 30 days: Duke 13%+669 on Oct 3, 2026, 14%+614 on Nov 2, 2026.

Outcome field73 outcomes · 1 platform

#	Outcome	Move	Kalshi	Best price
1	DukeKAL 14%+614	—	14%+614	14%+614KAL
2	FloridaKAL 13%+669	—	13%+669	13%+669KAL
3	UConnKAL 8%+1150	up 1 points over 24h	8%+1150	8%+1150KAL
4	IllinoisKAL 7%+1329	—	7%+1329	7%+1329KAL
5	ArizonaKAL 5%+1900	up 1 points over 24h	5%+1900	5%+1900KAL
6	KansasKAL 5%+1900	—	5%+1900	5%+1900KAL
7	Texas TechKAL 5%+1900	up 1 points over 24h	5%+1900	5%+1900KAL
8	Michigan St.KAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
9	ArkansasKAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
10	LouisvilleKAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
11	TexasKAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
12	HoustonKAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
13	St. John'sKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
14	Miami (FL)KAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
15	Iowa St.KAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
16	AlabamaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
17	GonzagaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
18	BaylorKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
19	VanderbiltKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
20	KentuckyKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
21	MichiganKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
22	VirginiaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
23	LSUKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
24	UCLAKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
25	TennesseeKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
26	USCKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
27	North CarolinaKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
28	MissouriKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
29	IndianaKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
30	PurdueKAL 1%+11011	—	1%+11011	1%+11011KAL
31	BYUKAL 1%+11011	—	1%+11011	1%+11011KAL
32	Texas A&MKAL 1%+12400	—	1%+12400	1%+12400KAL
33	NebraskaKAL 1%+14186	—	1%+14186	1%+14186KAL
34	Florida St.KAL 1%+14186	—	1%+14186	1%+14186KAL
35	IowaKAL 1%+16567	—	1%+16567	1%+16567KAL
36	MarquetteKAL 1%+19900	—	1%+19900	1%+19900KAL
37	VillanovaPAKAL 1%+19900	—	1%+19900	1%+19900KAL
38	AuburnKAL 1%+19900	—	1%+19900	1%+19900KAL
39	Ohio St.KAL 1%+19900	—	1%+19900	1%+19900KAL
40	WisconsinKAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
41	OklahomaKAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
42	NC St.KAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
43	CincinnatiKAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
44	ProvidenceKAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
45	ClemsonKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
46	SyracuseKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
47	VCUKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
48	Saint Mary'sKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
49	SMUKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
50	Virginia TechKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
51	CreightonKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
52	XavierKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
53	Ole MissKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
54	OregonKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
55	San Diego St.KAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
56	Notre DameKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
57	Seton HallKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
58	GeorgetownKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
59	StanfordKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
60	PittsburghPAKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
61	Wake ForestKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
62	San FranciscoKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
63	ButlerKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
64	MemphisKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
65	RichmondKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
66	St. BonaventureKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
67	DaytonKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
68	Loyola ChicagoKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
69	Colorado St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
70	NevadaKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
71	Boise St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
72	Mississippi St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
73	Boston CollegeKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL

How it settlesSettled by Kalshi

Kalshi's Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event (KXMARMAD-27) pays Yes on the Villanova contract (KXMARMAD-27-VILL) if Villanova is the 2026-27 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, and on the Pittsburgh contract (KXMARMAD-27-PITT) if Pittsburgh is; each pays No otherwise. The event is mutually exclusive, so one of its 73 contracts settles Yes. The national semifinals are on April 3, 2027 and the championship game on April 5, 2027 at Ford Field in Detroit, and Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027, with ESPN, the NCAA and Fox Sports as settlement sources. Kalshi is the only venue pricing this contract.

Market type

Multi Outcome

Priced on

Kalshi

What moves it

Villanova went 24-9 and 15-5 in the Big East in 2025-26, third behind St. John's and UConn, then lost to Utah State in the NCAA first round in San Diego on March 20, 2026
Pitt went 13-20 and 5-13 in the ACC in 2025-26, 15th of 18, and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament second round on March 11, 2026
Kalshi had Villanova at 0.9% and Pittsburgh at 0.1% on October 17, 2026, with Duke leading the 73-program board at 15%
Villanova plays at Pitt on November 17, 2026, faces Michigan in Philadelphia on November 21 and plays at Kansas on November 27
The 2027 field grows to 76 teams; Selection Sunday is March 14, 2027, and PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh hosts first- and second-round games on March 18 and 20
Kalshi is the only exchange pricing the contract; the final is at Ford Field in Detroit on April 5, 2027, with an expected expiration of April 13, 2027

Analysis · Pennsylvania Predictions staff · Oct 17, 2026

Villanova Carries Pennsylvania's National Title Case While Pitt Starts From the Bottom

The Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament odds for 2027 rest almost entirely on Villanova: the market treats the Wildcats as a tournament team priced just outside the contenders, and holds Pitt at the bottom of the board after a losing season. Villanova plays its home games at Finneran Pavilion in Villanova, Pennsylvania, and Pitt at the Petersen Events Center in Pittsburgh, and they are the two Pennsylvania programs among the 73 on Kalshi's 2027 national championship board. Kalshi is the only exchange pricing this contract; the live board above carries every program's current price.

What the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament Prices Are Saying

On October 17, 2026, Kalshi had Villanova at 0.9% to win the 2027 national championship, 28th of the 73 programs it lists, and Pittsburgh at 0.1%. Duke led at 15%, Florida was at 14%, UConn at 7% and Illinois at 6%. What the price is saying about Villanova is that the program is expected in the field and not expected to be one of the teams that decides it: 27 programs sat at 1% or higher that day, and Villanova was the first name below them, which puts it closer to the long shots than to Illinois.

Pitt's price is a different kind of number. Sixteen other programs shared the 0.1% mark on October 17, 2026, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Boston College among them, so the board is not separating Pitt from the rest of the long shots so much as holding a place for it. Kalshi had counted about 182,500 contracts traded on Villanova by that date against about 38,800 on Pitt, and none on Pitt in the previous 24 hours, which makes Villanova's the Pennsylvania price that carries a real read. Penn State does not appear among the 73 programs at all.

Villanova's 2025-26 Season and the Price It Left

Villanova finished 2025-26 at 24-9 and 15-5 in the Big East, third behind St. John's at 18-2 and UConn at 17-3 in ESPN's final conference standings. Four of the five league losses came against those two: 75-67 at UConn in Hartford on January 24, 73-63 to the Huskies at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on February 21, and 86-79 and 89-57 to St. John's, the second of them at Madison Square Garden on February 28, 2026. Against the rest of the conference the Wildcats lost once, to Creighton at home on January 7.

March ended early. Georgetown, which finished 11th in the league, beat Villanova 78-64 in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals at Madison Square Garden on March 12, 2026, and Utah State won 86-76 in the first round of the NCAA tournament's West Region at Viejas Arena in San Diego on March 20. That is the season the price reads: good enough to win 24 games and reach the field, and beaten by the league's two best teams whenever it met them.

ESPN's 2026-27 roster lists Kevin Willard as head coach, with eight seniors among its 14 players. The opening weeks will show whether that experience closes the distance to the top of the Big East.

Pitt's Place on the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament Board

Pitt finished 2025-26 at 13-20 and 5-13 in the ACC, 15th of the conference's 18 teams in ESPN's final standings, while Duke won the league at 17-1. The Panthers beat Stanford 64-63 in the first round of the ACC Tournament at Spectrum Center in Charlotte on March 10, 2026, and lost 98-88 to NC State the next day. ESPN's 2026-27 roster lists Jeff Capel as head coach.

The bottom-of-the-board price is the market's account of that record. A program that lost 13 of 18 conference games has to rebuild its case for a place in the bracket before a title enters the conversation, and the 2027 field grows from 68 to 76 teams, which widens the door to March without shortening the road to April. Pitt's early schedule offers the chances to start: Rider at home on November 2, 2026, Penn State at the Palestra in Philadelphia on November 8, and the in-state game with Villanova nine days later.

The Games That Test the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament Read

The two schedules put each Pennsylvania program against teams priced well above it. On the dates below, every price quoted is Kalshi's on October 17, 2026:

• November 1, Notre Dame in Rome: Villanova opens at the Palazzo dello Sport against a program Kalshi priced at 0.1%, which is the same mark as Pitt.

• November 17, Villanova at Pitt: the state's two programs on the board meet at the Petersen Events Center; Villanova won the 2025 meeting 79-61 at Finneran Pavilion on December 13, 2025.

• November 21, Michigan: at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, against a program at 2%, the first opponent on Villanova's schedule priced above it.

• November 27, at Kansas: Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas, against another program at 2%.

• January 9, Pitt at Duke: Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, against the board's favorite at 15%.

• February 3 and February 14, UConn: Villanova at PeoplesBank Arena in Hartford, then at Xfinity Mobile Arena, against a program at 7%.

Those games matter because on October 17, 2026 the gap between Villanova and Kalshi's 2% tier was small and the gap to the top was not. A November that includes wins over Michigan or at Kansas moves Villanova into the group priced above it; a split with UConn in February would say the third-place finish of 2025-26 is no longer the ceiling.

March Madness in Pittsburgh

The 2027 tournament comes to Pennsylvania before it reaches its end. PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh is one of eight first- and second-round sites, with games on March 18 and March 20, 2027, and Duquesne University as host; Duquesne's release counts it as the sixth time in 16 years the arena has hosted. Pitt plays West Virginia at the same arena on December 9, 2026, though its home court is the Petersen Events Center. The NCAA's Opening Round, the 12 games that open the 76-team field, is played in Dayton, Ohio, and Wichita, Kansas, on March 16 and 17, and the regionals follow in San Antonio, Los Angeles, Kansas City and New York. Selection Sunday, March 14, 2027, decides which teams go where.

The Case Against the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament Read

The strongest case against the read is that a price under 1% on a 24-win team undersells how a single-elimination tournament works. Villanova plays UConn twice and St. John's twice in the Big East, plus Michigan and Kansas before Thanksgiving, so its schedule gives it more chances than most programs priced near it to show that the October board was wrong. A team seeded into the 64-team bracket needs six wins to take the title whether it is a top seed or not, and a reader who holds this view argues that the distance between Villanova at 0.9% and UConn at 7% on October 17, 2026 is a judgment about seeding more than about the games themselves.

The counterpoint for Pitt is narrower and points the other way. A price that no one traded in a day is less an estimate of Pitt's chances than a placeholder, and a few early wins move a placeholder quickly. The read on Pitt is the 13-20 record until the Panthers give the market something newer to price.

What Changes the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament Read

The read on Villanova is wrong if the Wildcats beat Michigan and win at Kansas in November and take a game from UConn in February, because a team that does that belongs with the programs Kalshi had at 2% to 4% on October 17, 2026, not below them. The read on Pitt changes if the Panthers beat Villanova on November 17 and climb from 15th in an ACC that Duke won at 17-1.

• November 17, 2026: Villanova at Pitt, the one game that moves both Pennsylvania prices at once.

• November 21 and November 27, 2026: Villanova against Michigan in Philadelphia and at Kansas.

• February 14, 2027: UConn at Xfinity Mobile Arena, the home game against the Big East's highest-priced program.

• March 14, 2027: Selection Sunday and the first 76-team bracket; a seed in the 64-team bracket rather than the Opening Round is the first test of the read.

• March 18 and March 20, 2027: first- and second-round games at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh.

When the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament Market Resolves

The market resolves on the 2026-27 Division I men's college basketball national champion. Kalshi's Villanova contract pays Yes if Villanova is the national champion and its Pittsburgh contract pays Yes if Pitt is; both pay No otherwise, and because the event is mutually exclusive, only one of the 73 contracts settles Yes. The Final Four is played at Ford Field in Detroit on April 3, 2027, and the championship game there on April 5. Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027, and names ESPN, the NCAA and Fox Sports as its settlement sources.

Pitt's football program has its own conference question on the Pitt ACC championship market, and the Pennsylvania college football championship market carries Pitt and Penn State on the national title. Philadelphia's professional basketball club is priced on the 76ers NBA Finals market. The Pitt team page gathers the university's markets, the state's clubs and programs are on the sports hub, and every contract this site follows is listed on the markets page.

Questions readers ask

What are the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament odds for 2027?

As of October 17, 2026, Kalshi had Villanova at 0.9% to win the 2027 national championship and Pittsburgh at 0.1%, the two Pennsylvania programs among the 73 on its board. Duke led at 15%.

When does the 2027 NCAA Tournament market resolve?

The contract settles on the national champion crowned at Ford Field in Detroit on April 5, 2027, and Kalshi's expected expiration date is April 13, 2027.

Where can I trade Villanova and Pitt national championship odds?

Only on Kalshi, which lists Villanova and Pittsburgh on its Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event with 71 other programs. No second exchange prices the contract.

Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament?

Duke, at 15% on Kalshi on October 17, 2026, one point ahead of Florida at 14%. Pitt plays at Duke's Cameron Indoor Stadium on January 9, 2027.

What should I watch before the Pennsylvania NCAA Tournament market resolves?

Villanova at Pitt on November 17, 2026, Villanova's games with Michigan on November 21 and at Kansas on November 27, then Selection Sunday on March 14, 2027, when the first 76-team bracket is revealed.