Pennsylvania Weather Prediction Markets & Temperature Odds
Pennsylvania weather prediction markets price a reading, not a forecast: where Philadelphia's daily high and low temperatures will land. Every band pays on the National Weather Service's Philadelphia climate record.
Philadelphia
12 open contracts · 1 observation dayCity board →- ≤64°14%+614
- 65–66°52%-108
- 67–68°32%+212
- 69–70°2%+4900
- 71–72°2%+4900
- ≥73°1%+9900
- ≤34°1%+9900
- 35–36°1%+9900
- 37–38°1%+9900
- 39–40°1%+9900
- 41–42°1%+9900
- ≥43°100%—
Top Pennsylvania Weather Markets
Pennsylvania's weather contracts trade on Philadelphia, and its board asks two questions for each day: how high the temperature climbs and how low it falls. Both are written as ladders. Instead of one yes-or-no contract, the exchange lists one contract per two-degree band, with an open band at the cold end and another at the warm end, so the row covers every reading the day could produce and exactly one band pays. Kalshi lists both series, the highest and the lowest temperature in Philadelphia, and opens a day's ladders ahead of the day itself; the October 21, 2026 ladders opened at 10 a.m. Eastern on October 20. The Philadelphia weather board carries the full rows, the station behind them and the settlement clock.
What Moves Pennsylvania Weather Markets
Before the observation day, forecasts do the moving. The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, New Jersey, which forecasts for Philadelphia, issues the forecasts, and each new one can push weight along a row toward warmer or cooler bands. Once the day begins, measurements take over: a high that has already been recorded cannot be undone, so the bands below it lose their value, and the row narrows as the hours pass.
The season sets where a row sits. The Mount Holly office's normals for the Philadelphia station put the average high near 41°F in January and near 88°F in July, so a winter ladder brackets an entirely different stretch of the thermometer from a summer one.
Why Pennsylvania Weather Prediction Markets
A forecast gives one number and a chance of rain. A temperature ladder prices every band at once, and each price reads as the chance the market assigns to that band, so the row shows the whole spread of what traders expect rather than a single best guess. That makes it a different kind of reading from a forecast, and it can disagree with one.
What keeps the arithmetic clean is settlement. Each contract names its record, the National Weather Service's daily climate report for Philadelphia as The Weather Company reports it, and the reading either lands in a band or it does not. The station belongs to the contract rather than to the city, so the station name matters more than any app's number. Every band on the Philadelphia board is quoted by a single book, Kalshi, and each price is that book's price, never an average of venues.
Questions readers ask
How do weather prediction markets work in Pennsylvania?
An exchange lists one contract for each band of a reading, such as a Philadelphia daily high of 80°F to 81°F, and the band that holds the official reading pays in full while every other band pays nothing. Kalshi lists Philadelphia's daily high and low ladders this way.
Which Pennsylvania cities have weather prediction markets?
Philadelphia is the one Pennsylvania city with a weather board, carrying daily high and daily low temperature ladders. Another Pennsylvania city would appear once an exchange lists daily ladders for it, which is the exchange's decision.
How do Pennsylvania weather markets settle?
On one published record, never a forecast: the maximum or minimum temperature in the National Weather Service's Philadelphia climate report, CLIPHL, as The Weather Company reports it. The Mount Holly office keeps that record under station KPHL at Philadelphia International Airport.
Where can I trade Pennsylvania weather markets?
Kalshi quoted every band on the Philadelphia board on October 20, 2026, through its KXHIGHPHIL and KXLOWTPHIL series. The board names the book on each row; no cell on this site links out to it.
Are weather prediction markets legal in Pennsylvania?
The legal status page on Pennsylvania Predictions lists what the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board and the federal courts have said about prediction-market exchanges, each item with its date, and draws no conclusion the record does not support.