Pennsylvania Gas Price Predictions & Odds
Pennsylvania gas prices, priced the night before: Kalshi's daily contract asks where AAA's statewide average for a gallon of regular will land. Every day that has settled stays on the chart.
The board
Where AAA's Pennsylvania average lands nextPrice history
AAA's Pennsylvania average for regular, as each day settled- Change
- −$0.020
- High
- $4.458
- Low
- $4.431
- Days
- Oct 27 – Nov 2
- Change
- −$0.052
- High
- $4.487
- Low
- $4.431
- Days
- Oct 4 – Nov 2
- Change
- +$0.150
- High
- $4.571
- Low
- $4.282
- Days
- Sep 2 – Nov 2
How Pennsylvania Gas Price Markets Settle
Every Pennsylvania gas contract comes down to a single published figure: AAA's average price for a gallon of regular gasoline across Pennsylvania on the date the contract names, as AAA posts it on its Pennsylvania page at gasprices.aaa.com. Kalshi lists the daily series as KXAAAGASDPA and writes it under its AAAGAS contract terms. Those terms make AAA the source agency, take the number as AAA has documented it when the contract expires, set aside any revision AAA posts after that, and, if AAA has nothing for the date, settle on the last day AAA did publish.
Each rung on the ladder is a separate yes-or-no question. Kalshi's rules pay Yes only when AAA's Pennsylvania average is strictly greater than the rung's price, so a figure landing exactly on a rung settles that rung No. The statewide average also hides a wide spread. AAA breaks Pennsylvania into county price bands and metro averages that run from Erie and Pittsburgh to Allentown and Scranton, and those local figures sit on both sides of the one number the contract reads.
How to Read the Pennsylvania Gas Price Board
The ladder on this page is the coming day's contract. Each rung names a price and shows the chance the market gives that AAA's Pennsylvania average for that day finishes above it, with the venue quoting it named beside the figure. Rungs are spaced half a cent apart, so the chances fall as the prices rise, from rungs close to certain at the bottom of the ladder to long shots at the top.
The market line marks the price where the ladder passes an even chance, which is the nearest the board comes to one expected figure. Beside it, the last settled day shows where AAA's Pennsylvania number actually landed on the newest date that has resolved. Set one against the other to read the direction the market is pricing overnight. Trading on each date's contract ends at 11:59 p.m. Eastern the night before.
What Moves Pennsylvania Gas Prices
The tax is the piece of the Pennsylvania price that only moves once a year. The state's main levy on gasoline is the oil company franchise tax, which the Department of Revenue recalculates for each calendar year and announces in the Pennsylvania Bulletin by December 15. For 2026 it is $0.576 a gallon on gasoline, effective January 1, 2026, the same rate as in 2024 and 2025. The formula multiplies a fixed millage by an average wholesale price that state law will not let fall below $2.99 a gallon, and the department's notice of December 13, 2025 found the measured wholesale average under that floor, so the floor set the rate. The Insurance Department also collects an underground storage tank fee of one and one-tenth cents a gallon. The next scheduled reset is January 1, 2027.
Supply ties Pennsylvania to its neighbors. EIA places the state in PADD 1B, the Central Atlantic district it shares with New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and the District of Columbia. EIA names crude oil as the largest part of the retail price, the input that moves every state at once, and notes that most gasoline travels from refineries by pipeline to terminals near where it is sold.
Blends split the state in two. EPA requires reformulated gasoline in Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties, the Pennsylvania share of the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton area, and reformulated gasoline carries a tighter summer vapor-pressure limit. The Pittsburgh area's own summer rule is gone: EPA removed the 7.8 psi requirement for Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland counties from January 22, 2019 and for Allegheny County from July 5, 2019. Everywhere else the federal summer limit applies at retail from June 1 to September 15, and EIA notes that gasoline demand usually climbs in summer.
Pennsylvania Gas Price History
The chart under the board plots AAA's settled Pennsylvania average for each day whose contract has resolved. It starts with the contract for September 2, 2026, the first date in Kalshi's daily Pennsylvania series, and the full view keeps every settled day since. The seven-day and thirty-day windows roll forward a day at a time, always ending on the newest settled figure. What the record says about trading these contracts from Pennsylvania is on the legal status page.
Questions readers ask
What will gas prices be in Pennsylvania tomorrow?
Kalshi's daily Pennsylvania contract prices exactly that question: every rung shows the market's chance that AAA's statewide average for regular gasoline finishes the next day above a stated price, and the market line is the price where that chance is even. Both move through the day until trading closes at 11:59 p.m. Eastern the night before the named date.
Where does the Pennsylvania average gas price come from?
From AAA, which posts a daily Pennsylvania average for regular, mid-grade, premium and diesel at gasprices.aaa.com alongside county and metro figures. Kalshi's Pennsylvania contracts read only the regular-gasoline average, as AAA has documented it on the date each contract names.
When do Pennsylvania gas price contracts settle?
Under Kalshi's AAAGAS terms, trading ends at 11:59 p.m. Eastern the night before the named date, the AAA figure is read at the listed expiration time of 10:15 a.m., 11 a.m. or 3 p.m. Eastern, and the contract settles no later than the day after expiration.
What is the gas tax in Pennsylvania?
The oil company franchise tax on gasoline is $0.576 a gallon for 2026, effective January 1, 2026, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, which resets the rate every January 1. The Insurance Department separately collects an underground storage tank fee of one and one-tenth cents a gallon.
Are prediction markets legal in Pennsylvania?
The legal status page on Pennsylvania Predictions sets out what the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board and the federal courts have said about prediction-market exchanges, each item with its date, and draws no conclusion the record does not support. Nothing on this page is legal advice.
Will gas prices go down in Pennsylvania?
For the next day, compare the market line with the last settled AAA figure on the board: a line below it means the market is pricing a lower Pennsylvania average, a line above it a higher one. Beyond that, the fixed date on the calendar is January 1, 2027, when the Department of Revenue's new oil company franchise tax rate takes effect.