Pennsylvania Elections Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds

Top Pennsylvania Election Markets

This page lists Pennsylvania's November 3, 2026 contests in the order of the ballot rather than by trading: the statewide race first, then the U.S. House seats by district number, and money never reorders the list. The statewide race is the governor's, where the Luzerne and Dauphin county ballots, among others, tell voters to choose the candidates of one party for governor and lieutenant governor together. The House seats run from the 1st District to the 17th. Pages are written for the 1st, 7th, 8th, 10th and 16th, and each other seat joins the list when its page does. Every row prints both parties' contracts as the exchanges quote them. A party leading a row leads on price only, since no vote has been counted.

What Moves Pennsylvania Election Markets

The Department of State's calendar is the spine. Registration closed on October 19, and the last day to request a mail-in or absentee ballot is October 27. On November 3 the polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and a mailed ballot counts only if the county board of elections receives it by 8 p.m. that night; the boards may start pre-canvassing mail ballots no earlier than 7 a.m. on Election Day. Military and overseas ballots submitted by 11:59 p.m. on November 2 still count if they arrive by 5 p.m. on November 10, the same day counties report unofficial returns, one reason a close race can stay open after election night. A statewide margin of one-half of a percent or less brings a recount order by November 12, and counties certify by November 23.

Why Pennsylvania Election Prediction Markets

Polls and ratings describe a race; a contract puts a price on its outcome, and the price changes every time someone trades. Reading one starts with its settlement rule, which differs by exchange. Kalshi settles each Pennsylvania contract on the party of the officeholder: the House member sworn in for the term that begins in 2027, which it expects by January 4, 2027, and the governor inaugurated, expected January 17, 2027, with an early settlement allowed once media organizations agree on the winner. Polymarket settles its governor contract when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race the same way, or else on certification, and its House contracts on a consensus of credible reporting, falling back on the Federal Election Commission's official results. Each race's market page carries both rules.