Pennsylvania Economy Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Pennsylvania economy prediction markets settle on numbers published about the state, led by the daily contract on AAA's Pennsylvania gas price, with tax collections and the jobless rate among the figures that can follow.
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The gas contract leads this page. Kalshi lists a daily Pennsylvania series on AAA's statewide average for a gallon of regular, a ladder of prices in which each rung asks whether the next reading lands above it, settled on the figure AAA posts for Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania gas prices page carries that ladder and every settled day since the series began with the contract for September 2, 2026.
More contracts belong here when their answer is a number published about Pennsylvania, such as a month's General Fund collections, a budget figure or the statewide unemployment rate, and when Prediction Genius, which supplies the site's prices, assigns them to Pennsylvania instead of a national category. Questions that would read the same in every state stay national. Pennsylvania's races and club seasons are in the markets catalog, with the politics page and the sports page sorting them by subject.
What Moves Pennsylvania Economy Markets
Pennsylvania's economic figures arrive on a schedule, and a contract tied to one moves when its release lands. The Department of Revenue reports General Fund collections at the start of each month against the official estimate, broken out by sales, personal income, corporation and inheritance taxes; September's figures came out on October 1, 2026, covering the first three months of the 2026-27 fiscal year. The Department of Labor & Industry publishes the statewide jobless rate at 8:30 a.m. on a fixed calendar: September's data on October 16, October's on November 20 and November's on December 18, 2026, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics marking each newest month preliminary. Gasoline has its own fixed date. The state's oil company franchise tax on gasoline resets every January 1, announced in the Pennsylvania Bulletin by December 15, while AAA posts its average every day.
Why Pennsylvania Economy Prediction Markets
An economic contract states a line and asks whether the published figure lands above it; its price, read as a probability, shifts with every forecast and data point in the weeks before the release, not only on the day. The rules are the part to read first. They name the publisher, the series and which reading counts, and that matters here: Pennsylvania's monthly collections are measured against an estimate, the newest jobless rate is preliminary, and Kalshi's gas contract pays Yes only when AAA's figure is strictly above the rung, so a reading exactly on a rung settles No. Where two exchanges quote a line, the figure shown is the cheaper Yes, named with its exchange. The site takes no side on the number or on the venue.
Questions readers ask
How do economic prediction markets work?
An economic contract names a published figure and a line, such as AAA's Pennsylvania average for a gallon of regular gasoline on a given date, and pays a fixed amount if the figure lands above the line. Its price is read as the probability traders give that outcome.
Which Pennsylvania economic numbers can have prediction markets?
Figures published about Pennsylvania on a fixed schedule: AAA's daily statewide gas price, which Kalshi lists as a daily contract, the Department of Revenue's monthly General Fund collections, and the statewide unemployment rate from the Department of Labor & Industry and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
How do Pennsylvania economy markets settle?
On the figure the contract's rules name, as its publisher posts it. Kalshi's Pennsylvania gas contract settles on AAA's statewide average for the named date and sets aside any revision AAA posts after the contract expires.
When does Pennsylvania release its monthly unemployment rate?
On a published calendar, at 8:30 a.m.: the Department of Labor & Industry releases September 2026 data on October 16, 2026, October data on November 20 and November data on December 18. The newest month is marked preliminary when it comes out.
Are economic prediction markets legal in Pennsylvania?
The legal status page on this site reports what Pennsylvania law, the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board and the federal courts have said about prediction markets, each with a date, and draws no conclusion beyond that. It is not legal or financial advice.