Shapiro Won a Second Term by 22 Points, the Result the Governor Market Had Treated as Settled for a Month

Josh Shapiro won a second term as Governor of Pennsylvania on November 3, 2026, defeating Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity in a race the Associated Press called at 8:01 p.m., one minute after polls closed, according to WITF. As of 9:57 a.m. Eastern on November 5, 2026, unofficial returns compiled by the NBC News Decision Desk, with 98.7% of the expected vote in, showed Shapiro with 3,006,519 votes, or 60.4%, to Garrity's 1,907,499, or 38.3%. Libertarian Ken Krawchuk had 64,456 votes, or 1.3%. NBC News also projected Shapiro the winner, and Spotlight PA reported that Garrity called Shapiro to congratulate him before she spoke to supporters in Wyoming County.

The result is the one the Pennsylvania governor market had priced since at least mid-October, and as of November 5, 2026 the count had settled only the size of the win. Shapiro ran with Lieutenant Governor Austin Davis on the Democratic ticket and Garrity with Jason Richey on the Republican one. A margin of about 22 points and roughly 1.1 million votes is wider than Shapiro's first win: in 2022 he beat Doug Mastriano by about 56% to 42%, according to the Bucks County Beacon's results notes.

What the Governor Market Had Priced Going In

The market had not left much to learn on election night. On the last read before Election Day, at 6:38 p.m. Eastern on November 2, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket both had the Democratic contract at 98%, level on both venues, while Polymarket had the Republican contract at 1% and Kalshi at 2%. Those numbers had barely moved in three weeks: the best Democratic price went from 98% on October 16, 2026, when Polymarket had 98% and Kalshi 99%, to 97% on October 20 on both venues, and back to 98% on October 23. What the price was saying all along was that the winner was not a live question and that the remaining uncertainty sat in a two-point tail on the Republican side, which the returns closed.

The board is now done. Prediction Genius lists the governor market as resolved, and both venues showed the Democratic contract at 100% and the Republican contract at 0% on November 5, 2026. Kalshi had matched about 2.45 million contracts on the race by then, a heavy book for a contract that spent its whole life above 95%, which means traders kept pricing a result the board treated as close to certain rather than walking away from it.

How the Count Ran on Election Night

The returns never gave the call a reason to wobble. PhillyVoice reported that the AP called the race with Shapiro holding 85.4% of a count that was then only 3% complete, a figure that reflected which ballots arrive first rather than the final share. By Wednesday morning, November 4, Shapiro had 60.3% to Garrity's 38.4% with 98% of the vote counted, according to the same report, and the NBC News Decision Desk figures read on November 5 differed from that by about a tenth of a point on each side. A count that settles that early and that far from even leaves the late ballots with no bearing on who won.

Garrity accepted the result the same night. Spotlight PA reported that she took the stage at a Wyoming County golf course a little before 9 p.m., said she had called Shapiro to congratulate him on his "hard-fought victory," and told supporters, "his success is our success." WITF reported that Shapiro spoke a little after 9 p.m. and said Garrity had wished him well.

Why a 22-Point Win Matters Beyond the Price

A market that sits at 98% for weeks tells a reader who is likely to win, not by how much, and the margin is the part of this result with consequences in Harrisburg. Spotlight PA reported that Democrats also won control of both chambers of the General Assembly on November 3, giving Shapiro a trifecta. PhillyVoice, citing Associated Press race calls as of 10 a.m. on November 4, reported a 26-24 Democratic edge in the state Senate, which Republicans had held 27-23, and 111 Democratic seats in the state House, with some races still too close to call. No Pennsylvania market on this site priced the legislature, so those figures are the count, not a price.

The same night, Democrats flipped four Pennsylvania seats in the U.S. House, according to the Erie Times-News tally of race calls. Spotlight PA noted that by the end of a second term Democrats will have held the governor's office for 16 years, the longest run for one party since Republicans held it from 1939 to 1955.

For the market itself the lesson is narrower. A board priced in the high 90s for a month carries almost no information on election night except the confirmation, and that is what this one delivered: the 2% Kalshi had on the Republican contract on November 2, 2026 was the market's whole allowance for an upset, which means a reader who saw the board that night was told the answer, and the count gave the tail nothing to work with. The governor market page keeps the board and its price history.

What Is Still Pending in the Count

The returns are unofficial until they are certified, and Pennsylvania's own calendar sets the steps. The Department of State's 2026 general election calendar lists Monday, November 9 as the last day for county boards to receive proof of identification from mail-ballot voters whose identification could not be verified. Tuesday, November 10 at 5:00 p.m. is the deadline for counties to report unofficial returns for statewide offices to the Secretary of the Commonwealth and for military and overseas ballots to arrive and be counted. The calendar's statewide recount rule applies only when a statewide candidate loses by half a percent or less, a threshold this race does not approach.

Counties must finish computing their returns by November 17. Monday, November 23, 2026 is the last day for county boards of elections to certify their November returns to the Secretary of the Commonwealth, and it is also the last day to file a petition contesting the election of any candidate, according to the same calendar. Until then every figure on this page is an unofficial count, and the totals will move a little as the last ballots are added.

What Comes Next for the Governor's Office

With the winner settled, the open questions about the office are no longer priced on the governor board. Spotlight PA reported that Shapiro would not say during the campaign whether he would serve a full second term, and that if he left office early Davis would succeed him and serve through January 2031. That is a question no Pennsylvania market on this site prices.

The next dated beat for this race is the count itself: the November 10 deadline for statewide unofficial returns and military and overseas ballots, then the November 23 deadline for every county to certify its returns. The politics hub and the elections page carry the rest of the state's results, and the October 16 story on mail ballots in the governor's race shows how settled the board already looked three weeks out.