Democrats Flipped Four Pennsylvania House Seats, and Every District Board Had Leaned Their Way Before the Vote

Pennsylvania House election results for 2026 turned four seats from Republican to Democratic on November 3, 2026, and the state's U.S. House delegation now splits 11 Democrats to six Republicans, according to the Erie Times-News tally of race calls by the Associated Press, CNN, NBC News and Decision Desk HQ. Bob Harvie beat Brian Fitzpatrick in the 1st District, Bob Brooks beat Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th, Paige Cognetti beat Rob Bresnahan in the 8th and Janelle Stelson beat Scott Perry in the 10th. Every result here is unofficial: the figures are the NBC News Decision Desk's count as read at 9:58 a.m. Eastern on November 5, 2026, with 98% or more of the expected vote in for each of the four seats.

The four flips undo a 10-7 Republican majority in the delegation, and they are the four seats the district markets on this site had moved toward Democrats in the final weeks. WHYY reported that the four were Pennsylvania's most closely watched congressional races, all held by Republican incumbents in the eastern half of the state, and that Democrats swept them. NBC News projected that Democrats won control of the U.S. House nationally, so the Pennsylvania seats are part of a new majority rather than a consolation.

The Four Flips, Seat by Seat

The unofficial margins were wider than any of the four races had been priced to be close:

• 1st District, Bucks County and part of Montgomery County: Harvie had 188,087 votes, 52.7%, to Fitzpatrick's 168,531, 47.3%. The AP called the race at 12:37 a.m. on November 4, according to WHYY, and Fitzpatrick conceded in a statement that morning.

• 7th District, including Lehigh County: Brooks, a Bethlehem firefighter and union leader who had never held office, had 164,520 votes, 56.1%, to Mackenzie's 128,725, 43.9%.

• 8th District, including Lackawanna County: Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton, had 152,583 votes, 54.4%, to Bresnahan's 128,081, 45.6%.

• 10th District, including Cumberland County: Stelson had 173,845 votes, 55.0%, to Perry's 142,059, 45.0%, in a rematch of a 2024 race WHYY described as decided by about a point.

Two of the four incumbents, Mackenzie and Bresnahan, lost their first reelection campaigns, and Perry had held his seat for seven terms, WHYY reported. Fitzpatrick was a five-term incumbent who won by nearly 13 points in 2024.

What the District Boards Had Priced Going In

On the last reads before Election Day, all four boards favored the Democrat, and the best price on each told a different story about how sure the market was. In the 8th District, Kalshi and Polymarket both had the Democratic contract at 88% on November 2, 2026. In the 7th both venues had it at 87% that day, and in the 10th both had it at 83%, which means the market rated each of those three as roughly a five-in-six or better chance of a flip. In the 1st, Kalshi had the Democratic contract at 55% and Polymarket at 56% on November 2, 2026, which means the market treated Fitzpatrick's seat as a coin flip with a lean, not as a likely flip.

That last number is the one that moved most. On October 16, 2026, Polymarket had the Republican contract in the 1st District at 63%, so the board crossed over in the final two weeks, from a Fitzpatrick lean to a Harvie lean, and the result went further in the same direction than the price did. In the other three seats the price had settled earlier: the 7th sat between 86% and 88% on the Democratic side from mid-October on, and the 10th between 80% and 84%. The 8th rose from 72% on Polymarket on October 16, 2026 to 88% on both venues on November 2, the steadiest climb of the four, which the October 23 story on Cognetti's spending followed as it happened. Those paths mean the late shift was concentrated in Bucks County, where the price had furthest to travel.

Read as a set, the boards got the direction of every flip right and the size of none. The market priced four Democratic pickups as more likely than not, with confidence ranging from 55% to 88%, and the voters delivered all four by margins between five and twelve points.

The Seats That Did Not Change Hands

The other thirteen seats stayed with their parties, according to the Erie Times-News tally. Among the six with their own pages on this site, the boards had each favorite at 94% or higher on November 2, 2026, and each favorite won:

On the Democratic side, Chrissy Houlahan held the 6th District with 64.3%, Summer Lee the 12th with 65.4% and Chris Deluzio the 17th with 62.8%. Polymarket had the Democratic contract at 98% in the 6th and the 12th on November 2, 2026, and both venues had it at 97% in the 17th, which means the market treated all three as settled and the voters agreed by margins of more than 25 points.

On the Republican side, Lloyd Smucker held the 11th District with 55.6%, Guy Reschenthaler the 14th with 57.6% and Mike Kelly the 16th with 53.9% to Justin Wagner's 46.1%. Both venues had the Republican contract at 97% in the 11th, 98% in the 14th and 94% in the 16th on November 2, 2026, which means the market saw no opening for Democrats in any of the three even as it priced four Republican seats elsewhere as likely losses.

The 16th is the one worth a second look. Kelly's margin of under eight points was the closest of any Republican hold in the state, closer than the 7th District flip, yet Kalshi and Polymarket both had his party at 94% on November 2, 2026, which means the market saw the 16th as safe while it was narrower than three of the four seats that changed hands.

What the Boards Show Now

Prediction Genius lists every one of these district boards as resolved, and both venues showed the winning party's contract at 100% on November 5, 2026. A resolved board keeps its page on this site as a history of how the race was priced: the 1st District, 7th District, 8th District and 10th District pages carry the flips, and the 6th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th and 17th pages carry the holds.

The national result frames the delegation change. The Erie Times-News reported that Democrats regained control of the U.S. House by a wide margin and also flipped the U.S. Senate, so the four Pennsylvania pickups join a majority that did not depend on them. For the state, the change is in who holds the seats: a Bucks County commissioner, a Bethlehem firefighter, the mayor of Scranton and a former television reporter replace four Republicans, two of them in their first term.

What Is Still Pending

The counts are unofficial until each county certifies them. The Department of State's 2026 general election calendar sets Monday, November 9 as the deadline for mail-ballot voters to supply identification that could not be verified, and Tuesday, November 10 at 5:00 p.m. as the deadline for military and overseas ballots to reach county boards. The calendar's automatic recount order covers statewide candidates and ballot questions decided by half a percent or less, and every margin in the four flipped seats is wider than five points.

Counties must finish computing their returns by November 17, 2026, and Monday, November 23, 2026 is the last day for county boards to certify their November returns to the Secretary of the Commonwealth and the last day to file a petition contesting an election. The elections page and the politics hub carry the rest of the state's results as they are certified.