Harvie Unseated Fitzpatrick in the One Pennsylvania Flip the Market Had Priced Close to a Coin Flip

The Harvie Fitzpatrick results are in: Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, a Democrat, unseated five-term Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026, in a race the Associated Press called at 12:37 a.m. on November 4, according to WHYY. Unofficial NBC News Decision Desk returns read at 9:58 a.m. Eastern on November 5, 2026, with 98.5% of the expected vote in, had Harvie at 188,087 votes, 52.7%, and Fitzpatrick at 168,531, 47.3%, a gap of about 19,600 votes. Fitzpatrick conceded in a statement early on November 4 and wished Harvie "success as he assumes a responsibility that is both extraordinary and humbling," WHYY reported.

The district takes in all of Bucks County and a slice of Montgomery County, and it was the hardest-looking of the four Pennsylvania seats Democrats flipped: WHYY reported that Fitzpatrick won it by nearly 13 points in 2024. The Washington Examiner reported that Fitzpatrick was one of only two Republicans defending a House district won by Kamala Harris in 2024, and WHYY called his defeat the most unexpected result of the night in the state. It was also the one flip the 1st District market had priced closest to even.

How the 1st District Market Read the Race

The board's path is the clearest record of how late the race turned. On October 16, 2026, Polymarket had the Republican contract at 63% and Kalshi had the Democratic contract at 38%, which priced Fitzpatrick as the favorite to keep a seat he had won 56% to 44% two years earlier. On October 20 the best Democratic price was 36% on Kalshi, and on October 23 both venues had it at 40%. By the last read before Election Day, at 6:39 p.m. Eastern on November 2, 2026, the order had reversed: Kalshi had the Democratic contract at 55% and Polymarket at 56%, while Polymarket had the Republican contract at 45% and Kalshi at 47%.

That is a move from 38% on October 16 to 55% on November 2 for Harvie's party, a 17-point swing in seventeen days, and it means the market crossed from a Fitzpatrick lean to a Harvie lean only in the campaign's last stretch. Even then it stopped at a narrow edge. A 55% price is a statement that the race was close to a coin flip with a tilt, and the count was not close to a coin flip: a five-point margin in a district Fitzpatrick carried 56% to 44% in 2024, according to the Bucks County Beacon's results notes, is a swing of more than 17 points in the margin.

The board is now done. Prediction Genius lists the 1st District market as resolved, and both venues showed the Democratic contract at 100% on November 5, 2026. Kalshi had matched about 730,000 contracts on the race by then, the heaviest Kalshi book among the ten Pennsylvania districts with a page on this site, which means the closest-priced race in the state drew close to the most trading.

Why Bucks County Was the Upset

The reporting points at the environment more than the district. WHYY wrote that Fitzpatrick "fell victim to an unfavorable political environment for GOP incumbents nationwide and a weakened voter registration advantage in Bucks County," despite spending more on this campaign than on his previous three combined, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer as WHYY cited it. Internal Democratic polls had treated the race as a toss-up, WHYY reported, which is roughly where the market ended up on November 2.

The campaign itself was unusually bitter. WHYY reported that Fitzpatrick ran attack ads accusing Harvie of being the "subject" of an FBI investigation, that Harvie denied the claim and answered with a cease-and-desist letter accusing Fitzpatrick of defamation, and that Fitzpatrick filed a lawsuit in the final week seeking to remove Commissioner Diane Ellis-Marseglia from the county Board of Elections over her support for Harvie, a petition a judge struck down on November 2.

Fitzpatrick's record had made him hard to beat. A former FBI special agent who succeeded his brother, Mike Fitzpatrick, in 2016, he worked with the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and voted against the final version of the 2025 budget bill known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill," WHYY reported. Harvie tied him to the president's agenda anyway, and on election night he told supporters in Newtown, "Truth wins."

The 1st District in Recent Elections

The seat's history is why the price started where it did. The Bucks County Beacon's results notes record that Fitzpatrick beat Ashley Ehasz 55% to 45% of 367,380 votes in 2022 and 56% to 44% of 463,432 votes in 2024, carrying the Bucks County portion of the district 57% to 43% in 2024 and the Montgomery County portion 55% to 45%. Two straight double-digit wins against the same opponent were the history the market was pricing in mid-October, when it still had Fitzpatrick ahead.

The 2026 count reversed that record by a wide margin. Harvie's unofficial lead of about 19,600 votes, out of roughly 357,000 votes counted for the two candidates by November 5, reverses two double-digit Republican wins, which means the late move in the price was real but smaller than the move in the electorate. A reader who watched Kalshi's Democratic price climb from 36% on October 20 to 55% on November 2, 2026 saw the direction correctly and the distance only in part.

Who Bob Harvie Is

Harvie, 54, is a Bristol native and a former high school social studies teacher, according to WHYY. He was a Falls Township supervisor and won a seat on the Bucks County Board of Commissioners in 2019, when Democrats took a majority on the board for the first time in nearly four decades. He announced his run for the 1st District in April 2025 and beat Lucia Simonelli, a scientist and former Senate climate adviser, in the May primary.

Harvie led from the first returns. The Bucks County Beacon reported at 9:32 p.m. on November 3 that Harvie led 65% to 35% in an early count of 111,646 votes, a share that narrowed as more ballots were counted, and that the AP call came after midnight. The final unofficial margin of 5.4 points was the smallest of Pennsylvania's four flips, the others running from the 8th District's 8.8 points to the 7th's 12.2, according to the same NBC News count.

What Is Still Pending in the 1st District

Every figure above is unofficial. The Department of State's 2026 general election calendar sets Monday, November 9 as the deadline for mail-ballot voters to provide identification the county could not verify, and Tuesday, November 10 at 5:00 p.m. as the last moment for military and overseas ballots to reach the county board and be counted. Fitzpatrick has already conceded, and the unofficial count will move a little as those ballots are added.

Counties must finish computing their returns by November 17, 2026. The next dated beat is Monday, November 23, 2026, the last day for the Bucks and Montgomery county boards to certify their November returns to the Secretary of the Commonwealth and the last day to file a petition contesting the election. The full set of Pennsylvania flips, and the seats that held, is in the delegation results story; the elections page carries the rest of the state's races.